crayonboxAirborne XT912 Cruze and Streak III, Outback 582 Streak IIb
Hervey Bay YHBA, Maryborough YMYB, Pacific Haven YPAC, Childers YCDS, Tewnatin Noosa YNSH, Caloundra YCDR, Tangalooma YTGA, Watts Bridge YWSG, Biggenden YBIN, Caboolture YCAB, Gympie YGYM, Orchid Beach YOKB, Bundaberg YBUD, Gayndah YGAY, Monto YMTO, Kingaroy YKRY
Private: Nikenbah, Wanggoolba, Miramar(Takura), Lake Barambah, Susan River, The Dimonds (Bill Price)
Here is SkyVector showing some flying I have completed as of and including CrossCountry NAVs endorsement in March 2014.
WEATHER - To Go or NOT to go. Pilot planning decisions.
A pilots decisions during flight planning can mean the flight is safe, risky or down right dangerous. This video describes some of the online resources and Apps I and many other pilots utilise to make those important informed decisions. Some of these resources are not available to non-pilots, but many of them are!
FB: @CrayonBoxFlights
Comments
Great topic and video Stewart.
- 1 like
- ULtrikepilot@ULtrikepilot
KenULtrikepilot liked this
Thanks Crayon. great topic. Here in the US I use a few different sources
weather.gov
wunderground.com
windy.ty
and www.usairnet.com
Also useful to look at webisites frequented by glideheads (hang gliders) - which ususally have good information on winds, soaring and thermals.
Hi all,
I am just curious as to how many pilots use Windy.com and more importantly how accurate the data is. Usually if on surface the winds are calm, they get pretty strong as you mesaure the wind speed at higher altitude.
On a smaller note, how do they calculate data at different altitudes.
Thanks.
- 1 like
- Tussock@Tussock
white eagleTussock liked this
Great topic crayonbox. I personally havnt been satisfied with most wind apps. Particularly for these reasons. Some are ok at reporting windspeed and direction aloft at changing altitudes. But durations mau be short lived and entirly different when you get up their. If i remember one thing there was a balooning ap that was good at reporting present wind speeds . But the problem i see it is change and predicting. A number more than i can count ive speed off by great wind predictions perfect for flight only to be disappointed by just the opposite. In hangie terms blown out! I like more to look at wearther patterns like fronts ,squall lines, high pressure and low preasure. Building cummies that develope into anvil heads in the late afternoon as it cools i would exspect a gust front for a good distance. Seeing stacks of lenticulars forming or wave clouds . So i guess what iam saying i use an app with a reserved set of judgements but i think looking at radar , weather maps and general wind strengths and direction. Than a good surounding view of the sky and what the clouds are dooing and developing a good general instint for what its doing alof. Apps are useful yes and checking the weather but i think more infusous on taking a good birds eye view of clouds and sky .We get programmed that wind is invisable but thats not true. You can see dust pollution in the wind moving things like trees leaves birds show you alot. Contrails from planes drifting ,different cloud formations, smoke rising up from vally floors. You can learn alot about wind and their effect around obstcles by standing out in a snow ssorms.I know i might be openning a can of worms but over relience on apps can be a distraction from really getting to use the best of are abilitys with observation. Weather radar goes a long way to find that clear path for a good cross country and of course predicted winds. But final decisions depend on my instincts and a good hard look at the sky.
- 2 likes
- white eagle@wambleska
- ULtrikepilot@ULtrikepilot
Tussockwhite eagle liked this
ULtrikepilot liked this
Well done CB, nicely put together!
While nothing here in NZ seems to be more accurate than the Windows app (just look out the bloody windows), we have a weather website that gives prognostic geopotential height charts. While it takes a wee bit of practice to get useful info from them (geopotential is a measure of entropy; not in itself wildly useful), it allows us to get predicted meteo wind at altitude information (highly useful).
NZ is highly influenced by sea breeze and mountain winds, which most models lack the resolution to resolve. Your line in the video about watching patterns in the preceding days is really useful here, as often patterns are repeated and cyclic. All information is useful, but I'm fully in line with David's last line: 'instincts and a good hard look at the sky' make the final call.
Australia, Europe and the US seem to have a huge amount of weather information available!
- 2 likes
- white eagle@wambleska
- ULtrikepilot@ULtrikepilot
Tussockwhite eagle liked this
ULtrikepilot liked this
Rizzy, Windy and other those sites use algorithms and geographical data to extrapolate and predict wind and other information from gathered data from meteorological reporting sites. There are a range of models used, some of which are better than others. A big factor is how far apart the data points are; the closer the points, the better the models can predict local influences.
The equations used in meteorology are often heinously complex differential calculus. A bunch of assumptions have to be made and the validity of those assumptions varies with differing circumstances. For instance, one factor is called 'geostrophic balance' - whereby coriolis effect balances pressure gradient - and when this balance occurs, wind will flow parallel to isobars on a synoptic chart. This is easy to model... but not often seen in the real world. Finer detail models may show how some features modify geostrophic wind, and these models will be more accurate. But experience in seeing how the real world reflects those models can make a world of difference, and that kind of knowledge is really important where I live.
Where I live, predicted NW winds are often NE... SW winds often die and generate a NE sea breeze... winds from the S are often held up by winds from the NW blowing down alpine river valleys... and someone familiar with observing patterns can be more accurate than any model.
- 1 like
- Tussock@Tussock
white eagleTussock liked this
Iam with you on that tussock I use windy but iam not a geek guy i find it a bit challenging to navigate. But you made an excelent point about where you fly. Coastal sea breeze mixing with big mountains really makes for challenging wind forcast as opposed to flat terrain. Here in montana you have so many joining canyons. A place ive been wanting to fly is the clark fork river on highway 135 from st regis to where it meets the south fk of the flat head river. Old rail road tressles unspoiled wilderness setting. But is met ny a conglomerant of canyons from different areas of terrain and wreather. I was out waiting for a load of hay by my supplier who lives right where these canyons converge. I decided to look at my wind apps and it had said surface winds west at 9 gusting to 15 winds aloft it said was 15 to 20 from the south west. But as i sat in my truck i watched the windmill pump on the front of the ranch displaying a good east wind from the flathead side. And 200 ft to 500 ft nice little puffs of fog clouds were drifting fast from the south canyon on 135. I could see smoke rising toward plains and it was drifting from a north wind. And the stratus clouds above the canyons were moving predominanty from the west! So the true answer came from a good visual of the surrouning aera which basicly told me there alot of gradients and the winds are coming from everywhere.
David, that's just one reason why, when I go to Missouri to fly a (not a trike) from the northern end of the Bitteroot Mountains, I'm going to spend an evening around the fire with you, drinking endless cups of tea and picking your brains to learn what I can before flying - what you've seen is real and therefore valuable.
Do you know Jeff Shapiro by any chance?
- 1 like
- Tussock@Tussock
white eagleTussock liked this
I do know jeff shapiro tussocks. And what an incredable master pilot he is weather its flying ww hang gliders ,parasailing wingsuits. Jeff is about 90 miles east of me in missoula. Theres a great site their mt jumbo and then closer to me is the tarkio launch and a nice private runway where i can fly my soaring trike. Jeff has a nice base of hangies around missoula and does alot to keep the sport alive. Iam working on maybe getting luke waters up from sanora wings and possably doing some towing and hoping jeffs group may come as well to our pnw fly in. Theirs a bunch of us trikers including ken nessar , joe hockman ,j ebb here that i think would apprieciate maybe having that at the fly in. But thats still in preliminary stages.Tom tabbs is going to go to stevensville and fly the press around pryor to the whole week fly in. And it looks as though we may have a xc event to bannack ghost town.that would be sooo awesome of you could make it.
Picking my brains you make me laugh. nothing but grey matter mixed with discarded feathers and a excentric imagination! My motto i fly therefor i am!
There another pilot garrett up in alaska who also does some just incredable flying of trikes hang gliders, mosquito. Robert combs another veteran cosmic rocker triker ,old hangie will most likely be at the fly in. He has a terriffic launch north of missoula up by kalispell that is just incredable flying the mission range. Much like what you have in NZ.
You know tussock i thrive to see the flying sport come alive . Iam just in awe of the incredable people flying around the world such as yourself , yft ,jozzy ,henry ext. Ive met so many incredable people flying. With the world changing and so much controversy theres that majic moment with your wings hanging out with a view under cloudbase where. There is no complicated thought, no time. Just awe ,exhilerating immosion and instinct.
Thats the matrix that binds us all!
- 1 like
- Tussock@Tussock
ULtrikepilotTussock liked this
Hey Bryan, I did not realize that you may be contemplating coming to our PNW trike fly-in. That is awesome ! Seriously, I and many others would love to meet you there and of course fly with you. Although I have not made definite plans for my summer flying trip yet, I will be trying to plan to be there. A lot of other family related events I will need to plan around to make it happen but will do my best. May be a bit more of a challenge this year as I am back working for DowDuPont on a part time basis as a consultant, R&D Fellow, but I really enjoy the kind of work I am doing.
Living in the flat lands, I happen to use and rely upon quite a few internet based tools. NOAA tools including SkewT charts based on soundings, windalert, TWC, weatherunderground, and others. I find them very useful and in some cases quite accurate so makes the go/nogo decisions easier to make. I incorporate a mix of macro and micrometereology info but of course I pay close attention to what I am seeing with my eyes too. It seems to me that the closer the proximity of various features, mountanous terrain, terrain type, and large bodies of water, the more challenging and variable wind directions and magnitudes at altitude can be to accurately predict.
This week enjoying the awesome skiing and mineral hot springs in the Colorado rockies, a very welcome break from routine at home.
Aw, David and Joe - much as I'd love to get to the PNW fly-in, it won't be for a while (unless I hold up a bank or somesuch!). Obviously, I'd LOVE to get to your part of the world and see you guys and join you for some fun. You chaps live somewhere special, so different to where I live, and I'd love to experience some of it. Like Jeff Shapiro, I fly wingsuits, paragliders and hang gliders as well as trikes. Jeff has a little-known wingsuit exit near his home that is, in his words, 'pretty full value', and he's the only wingsuit base jumper in that area and deserves a little company too. The PNW sounds like such fun! One day, when finances allow...
A funny thing, David: yesterday I was giving a presentation about setting goals, and the subject of flying came up. Along with it were the usual questions about fear. My response was that I'm always glad to feel a little bit of fear before I get in the air, as that reminds me that I'm doing something serious, with high consequence. But when I'm flying, there's no fear any more, and I come to life in the blend of awe and exhilaration that flying brings, and I'm bringing to life a happy dream that I've nurtured since I was a kid. I think I used pretty much the same language as you did in your post.
And obviously I think the best of us a bit 'bird brained'! That was almost Larry Tudor's nickname, and he could FLY! People with flying mindsets tend to be a good observers, and that's the basis for understanding a flying area. You bet I'll be picking your brains, and with your aviation background, I know you've got a heap of stories to tell!
Joe, if you're using Skew-T diagrams you've got a good grasp of weather theory! We don't even have them here (we have tephigrams instead). I've never done any 'real' flatland flying; something else to learn... looking forward to meeting you in the near future.